There is a persistent idea in Canadian real estate that buyers are always waiting for the right moment. Lower rates, lower prices, more supply, less competition. The stars have to align. And according to RBC's 2026 Home Ownership Poll, most Canadians have quietly concluded that those stars never actually align. Sixty-four percent of respondents said you can never really know when the right time is to buy a home.

The survey polled 1,753 Canadians between the ages of 18 and 64 in late April and early May 2026. The headline number is striking, but the more interesting story sits underneath it. Because the same poll also found that 45 percent of prospective buyers, those planning to purchase within two years, believe now is their window. Two-thirds of Canadians say the perfect moment doesn't exist, and nearly half of active buyers say this is it anyway. That is not a contradiction. That is exactly how housing decisions actually get made.

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A Market That Looks Different Depending on Where You Live

Nationally, Canadians are split on whether this favours buyers or sellers. Twenty-seven percent call it a buyer's market and 36 percent say it's a seller's market. The rest, apparently, aren't sure.

The regional breakdown tells you more. Quebec and Atlantic Canada lean heavily toward seller's market conditions, at 57 and 52 percent respectively. British Columbia and Ontario flip it: 39 and 38 percent of respondents in those provinces see a buyer's market. That tracks. BC and Ontario have seen year-over-year price corrections in key segments, giving buyers more negotiating room than they had during the 2021 and 2022 frenzy.

Among prospective buyers specifically, the mood is more optimistic than average. Lower home prices and interest rates are the top reasons they cite for feeling a window exists. More than half, 53 percent, believe prices will rise soon, which creates its own urgency. Buy now before conditions shift back. It's the classic squeeze: you want to wait for certainty, but you're also afraid of waiting too long.

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Uncertainty Is the Dominant Force

The biggest thing standing between buyers and a purchase isn't price. It's confidence.

Three-quarters of prospective buyers say economic uncertainty is making them more cautious, 72 percent call it the biggest challenge they face, and 67 percent worry it will disrupt their plans outright. Inflation, trade tensions, job market softness: none of it is the kind of thing you can model into a mortgage spreadsheet and get a clean answer from.

The confidence gap is real. Among those planning to buy within two years, only 49 percent feel confident making homebuying decisions right now. Fifty-six percent say they have the information they need to act. So roughly half of the people closest to buying feel underprepared and unsure. That's the gap advisors and agents need to close.

"Rising costs and shifting economic conditions have made every step of the homebuying journey feel higher-stakes, and the pressure of whether to act is weighing on Canadians," said Janet Boyle, Senior Vice President of Home Equity Finance at RBC.

Across all respondents, 78 percent believe homeownership requires more sacrifices today than it did for previous generations. Three-quarters say most first-time buyers will experience some form of financial shock when they purchase. Neither number is surprising if you've been watching Canadian housing costs over the past decade, but seeing them quantified is still sobering.

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First-Time Buyers Are Watching the GST Rebate Closely

First-time buyers are showing more optimism than the broader group. Fifty-two percent believe current conditions are giving them a genuine chance to enter the market. Nearly two-thirds say the federal First-Time Home Buyer GST/HST Rebate will help them buy sooner.

That rebate received Royal Assent in March 2026 and is now in effect. It eliminates the GST, or the federal portion of the HST, on newly built homes up to $1 million, with a scaled rebate on homes between $1 million and $1.5 million. Eligible buyers can get back up to $50,000. It's a real number. But there's one important caveat: the rebate applies only to new construction and substantially renovated homes, not resale. If a first-time buyer is shopping the existing market, this program doesn't move the needle for them directly. That distinction matters and is worth understanding before building the rebate into a savings plan.

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The Trade-Off Spiral Is Getting Worse

Inflation isn't just raising prices. It's undercutting the savings buyers need before they ever reach the market. Seventy-one percent of prospective buyers say rising costs are causing them to save less for a home. And the financial trade-offs being made have intensified significantly since January.

The share delaying major purchases, things like a car or home renovations, climbed from 54 percent in January to 69 percent now. Those postponing or scaling back vacations went from 55 to 62 percent. Sixty percent say they are completely overhauling their spending and saving habits, up from 55 percent. And more than half, 53 percent, say they may need to redirect some retirement savings toward a down payment, up from 49 percent just months ago.

That last one deserves attention. Dipping into retirement savings to fund a down payment is a short-term solution to a long-term problem. It might get someone into the market, but it does so at the cost of compound growth they will not easily recover. It reflects how stretched the calculus has become for a meaningful share of buyers.

The picture for renewing homeowners isn't much more reassuring. Only 44 percent of those facing a renewal within two years feel confident navigating the current rate environment. Eighteen percent have not yet assessed what they could absorb if rates rise.

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What This Means If You're Thinking About Buying

The poll is a snapshot of national sentiment, and sentiment doesn't determine whether buying makes sense for any individual. What it does illustrate is that the hesitation most buyers feel right now is widely shared, and that it's not irrational. The costs are real. The uncertainty is real. The trade-offs are real.

But 64 percent of Canadians believing there is no perfect time to buy is, in a way, liberating. It means waiting for certainty is not a strategy. It's a delay. The actual question is whether the numbers work for your situation, in your market, at your income and savings level. That's a narrower and more answerable question than asking whether now is the right time for everyone.

BC buyers, in particular, are sitting in a market where prices have softened and inventory has been building. Whether that remains true six months from now depends on factors none of us fully control. The buyers in the poll who are moving forward seem to understand that. They're not waiting for the stars to align. They've decided the current configuration is close enough.