The kids are gone. The house is too big. The plan was always to sell, take the equity, find something smaller, and actually enjoy retirement.

For a lot of Canadians, that plan is sitting in a drawer right now.

New research from ReMax Canada puts a number on what many real estate professionals are already seeing on the ground: only 10 per cent of Canadians say they intend to move to a smaller home within the next decade. Among those 65 and older, that figure rises to 16 per cent, but 46 per cent say they plan to stay exactly where they are. The downsizing wave that was supposed to reshape the housing market as the baby boom aged out of their family homes isn't happening. Not yet, anyway.

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The Math Doesn't Work the Way It Used To

Part of the hesitation is straightforward. Home prices have fallen from their 2022 peaks, and for retirees whose retirement plan was built around a specific equity number, that gap is real and it stings. The house that was worth $1.1 million two years ago might be sitting at $950,000 today, and whatever they were planning to pocket after the move has shrunk accordingly.

Ben McCabe, founder of Bloom Finance, a Canadian company focused on home equity in retirement, estimates that realtor fees, land transfer taxes, and moving or renovation expenses can absorb up to 15 per cent of sale proceeds. That's his estimate, not a hard figure, but it's in the right ballpark for major urban markets. When you factor that into a sale price that's already lower than expected, the business case for downsizing weakens fast.

"Probably the biggest challenge right now is just the fact that home prices are off so much from their 2022 highs," McCabe said.

And then there's the other financial pressure nobody talks about as much: seniors supporting their adult children longer than they planned. Three-quarters of seniors surveyed by Bloom said supporting family members is cutting into their retirement savings. That's a significant number. It means the downsizing calculation isn't just about the house anymore. It's about the whole financial picture, which for a lot of older Canadians is more complicated than it looked five years ago.

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There's Nowhere Good to Go

Here's the thing that gets buried in most coverage of this issue: even the retirees who want to move often can't find anything worth moving into.

According to the ReMax survey, 49 per cent of Canadians report low availability of suitable downsizing options in their communities, and another 8 per cent say there's essentially nothing available at all. Among those 65 and older, 65 per cent report low or no availability. That's not a fringe complaint. That's the majority of the demographic this conversation is supposedly about.

The supply problem isn't new, but the shape of it matters. For years, the housing industry treated the condo as the obvious downsizing solution. Sell the house, buy a unit. The problem is that a 480-square-foot condo in a high-rise isn't what most retirees have in mind when they picture their next chapter. They want space for guests, maybe a spare room, a small outdoor area, something that feels like a home rather than a holding pattern. Those properties, ground-oriented, right-sized, in established neighbourhoods with walkable amenities, are genuinely scarce in most Canadian markets.

"When developers were building 450- and 550-square-foot condos, those weren't really the solution for what we needed," said Tim Syrianos, a Toronto broker who works extensively with older clients.

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Why This Matters Beyond the People Stuck in It

There's a downstream effect here that doesn't get enough attention. Retirees staying in large family homes they're ready to leave aren't just personally frustrated. They're also keeping those homes off the market, which limits what younger buyers can access and helps maintain the inventory squeeze that has defined Canadian real estate for the better part of a decade.

Statistics Canada data from 2024 puts about 7.74 million Canadians, or 18.9 per cent of the population, at 65 or older right now. By 2030, that share is projected to climb to nearly 25 per cent. If even a fraction of that cohort eventually moves, it represents a meaningful shift in what's available and where. But meaningful doesn't mean imminent. The ReMax data suggests this will be a gradual process, not the wave some forecasters anticipated.

The irony is that falling condo prices in markets like Toronto and Vancouver, the very conditions making retirees feel poorer on paper, could also be what eventually gets them off the fence. If the destination gets cheaper faster than the departure price drops, the math starts working again. McCabe says he expects the downsizing pause to ease as market conditions stabilize, particularly for homeowners who were targeting the condo market as their next stop.

For now though, most are watching and waiting. Some because the numbers don't add up. Some because there's nothing to buy. And some, honestly, because the maintenance has become too much and the lifestyle calculation is starting to outweigh the financial one.

"Although the market dictates that it may not be a good time to sell, you have to listen to your body and what's right for you," said Marco Pedri, a broker who works with many older clients navigating exactly this decision.

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If you or someone in your family is weighing a downsizing move in the Okanagan, the calculus looks different here than in Vancouver or Toronto, and it's worth talking through with someone who knows the local inventory. Reach out to the team at Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty, or explore what's currently available through our property listings to get a realistic sense of your options.