The BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) predicts a turnaround for the B.C. housing market by the end of 2024, fueled by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada (BoC).
Key Takeaways
- Slow start in 2024 expected to pick up in the second half.
- Interest rate cuts by the BoC seen as a major driver for increased sales.
- Lower Mainland sales projected to rise modestly (1-2%) this year, with stronger gains in Fraser Valley and Chilliwack (up to 8.1%).
- BCREA forecasts price growth to mute in the Lower Mainland but potentially rise in more affordable areas like Chilliwack and Fraser Valley in 2025.
Market on Hold, Waiting for Rate Cuts
While B.C. home sales haven't shown significant growth compared to the first quarter of 2023, the BCREA believes buyer confidence hinges on the BoC lowering its policy rate. This could happen as early as June, with potential cuts of up to 100 basis points by year-end.
Lower Mainland Market
The Lower Mainland, often the economic engine of the province, is expected to see a modest rise in sales this year (around 7%) despite continued affordability concerns in Greater Vancouver. Price growth is expected to be muted across the Lower Mainland in 2024, with a potential uptick in more affordable areas in 2025.
Overall Outlook
The BCREA predicts a positive outlook for the B.C. housing market in the latter half of 2024 and into 2025, driven by a combination of falling interest rates and strong population growth. While affordability remains a concern, particularly in Greater Vancouver, some areas may see price increases in the coming year.
