The Canadian real estate market often mirrors wider economic changes, and the latest Statistics Canada report provides a striking example. In June 2025, the total value of building permits decreased 9% to $12.0 billion, a notable shift from May's levels. This decline, primarily influenced by slowdowns in Ontario and British Columbia, highlights potential adjustments in housing supply and market conditions. As specialists at Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty, we help clients navigate these developments in areas like the Okanagan Valley.

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Key Trends in the Residential Sector

Residential building permits dropped 4.3% to $7.1 billion in June, with multi-family projects falling 3% to $4.6 billion. British Columbia played a major role in this shift, seeing a $487 million decrease in multi-family plans after a strong May. Single-family permits also declined 6.6% to $2.4 billion, with Ontario and Alberta leading the reductions.

Looking at the second quarter, residential intentions fell 15% to $21.7 billion, ending five quarters of steady growth. Multi-family developments lost $3 billion, with Toronto and Vancouver as main areas of concern. Toronto's value in constant dollars hit its lowest point since 2018, even after prior boosts to national figures. On a brighter note, authorizations from the third quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025 covered 305,400 dwelling units, up 14.2% from the year before and adding 37,900 units.

To put this in context, CMHC notes that housing starts decreased 5% across Canada in July 2025, with British Columbia's multi-family starts down 10% year-over-year CMHC Housing Market Outlook. In places like Kelowna, this may lead to limited new supply soon, affecting options and prices for homes.

Here are some standout residential stats from the report:

• Multi-family decline: $3 billion lost in Q2, driven by Toronto (-$1.4 billion) and Vancouver (-$1.2 billion).
• Single-family drop: $874 million reduction in Q2, led by Ontario (-$645 million).
• Unit growth: 305,400 dwellings authorized, a 14.2% rise year-over-year.

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Non-Residential Sector

The non-residential sector saw a steeper 15% decrease to $4.9 billion. Ontario's institutional permits, which include hospitals and schools, fell from $1.9 billion in May to $538 million. By contrast, Alberta gained $455 million, thanks to hospital initiatives in Red Deer. Industrial permits increased 22% to $1.1 billion, helped by progress in Quebec and Ontario, while commercial permits slipped 4%, with Quebec and British Columbia showing the largest drops.

For the quarter, non-residential permits hit a record $15.0 billion, boosted by Ontario's $1.4 billion in institutional advances. The national institutional figure reached $5.6 billion, a high point, with input from St. Catharines-Niagara and Red Deer. Industrial values rose $699 million to $2.9 billion. TD Economics points out that June's urban starts balanced multi-family and single-detached homes, with British Columbia holding firm TD Economics - Canadian Housing Starts. These elements point to possible stability through infrastructure, which might support residential areas by encouraging job opportunities.

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Prices, Outlook, and Planning Tips

This permit trend connects to larger patterns. CREA data shows Canada's average home price at $691,643 in June 2025, up slightly from the prior month but down 0.7% year-over-year. The benchmark price fell 4.5% annually to $698,000, with British Columbia's benchmark decreasing 2.3% to $959,300 Canadian Housing Market Report. Looking ahead, CREA expects a 1.7% national price drop to $677,368 in 2025, including small decreases in British Columbia Housing Market Forecast. CMHC mentions tariffs as a factor easing markets until a rebound in 2026 Lasting Tariffs Will Shape Canada’s Economy.

CREA's national sales-to-new-listings ratio of 50% suggests a balanced market, giving buyers room to negotiate as inventory grows. RBC forecasts a slow recovery building to more demand in 2026 Canadian Housing - RBC. In the Okanagan, these shifts emphasize the importance of timing and local knowledge.

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Closing Reflections

The 9% drop in building permits signals a market adjusting, balanced by increases in dwelling units and certain non-residential areas. At Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty, we see this as a chance for thoughtful strategies. If you're looking at a single-family home or investment, our team provides customized support. Reach out today to explore how these trends fit your needs. What part of the market interests you most?

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Source: Statistics Canada