Canada's population growth has nearly stalled, influenced by federal immigration restrictions. As a real estate brokerage in the Okanagan Valley, Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty tracks these developments to help clients understand their effects on local and national housing markets. Recent data shows how reduced inflows of non-permanent residents are reshaping demand patterns.

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Key Population Growth Figures

Canada's population reached 41,651,653 on July 1, 2025, up by just 47,098 people or 0.1% from April 1. This marks the slowest second-quarter increase since 1946, excluding the pandemic year of 2020 when borders closed. It follows a similar 0.1% gain in the first quarter, contrasting with stronger rates of 0.7% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2024.

Year-over-year, growth from July 2024 to July 2025 was 0.9%, adding 389,324 people, down sharply from the 3.0% surge a year earlier. International migration drove 71.5% of the increase, adding 33,694 people, while natural growth (births minus deaths) contributed 13,404.

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Drivers of the Slowdown

The primary factor is a net loss of 58,719 non-permanent residents between April and July, the largest quarterly drop since 1971 outside pandemic periods. This group, including foreign students and temporary workers, now represents 7.3% of the population, down from a peak of 7.6% in October 2024.

Federal policies from 2024, such as caps on study permits and limits on temporary foreign workers, reversed the post-pandemic influx that added nearly one million people annually from 2022 to early 2025. The number of non-permanent residents fell to 3,024,216 by July 1, with declines in study permit holders (-32,025) and work permit holders (-19,637). Asylum claimants rose by 17,901, reaching 497,443.

These changes aim to reduce non-permanent residents to under 5% of the population by 2027, addressing pressures on housing and services. Prime Minister Mark Carney has stated this will help manage economic demands while securing skilled workers.

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Regional Variations

Growth patterns varied across provinces. Prince Edward Island led with a 0.8% increase, followed by Alberta at 0.4%. British Columbia saw a rare decline of 2,154 people (-0.0%), driven by non-permanent resident outflows. Ontario lost 37,000 non-permanent residents, while Quebec gained 17,100 from net immigration but saw overall stagnation.

Interprovincial migration showed Alberta gaining 6,187 people net, its 12th straight quarter of inflows, while Ontario lost 6,154 net for the 15th consecutive quarter.

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Impact on Housing Markets

The slowdown is cooling housing demand. In Toronto, reduced newcomer arrivals have lowered rents and condo interest, where immigrants previously boosted rental activity. National average asking rents dropped to $2,088 in February, a 4.8% annual decline, the steepest since April 2021 and part of five straight monthly decreases.

Condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver face oversupply, with federal officials noting excess inventory leading to stalled sales despite price reductions. Forecasts indicate Canadian home prices may rise 0.7% in 2025 before falling 0.7% in 2026, potentially easing affordability.

In British Columbia, prices could dip 0.8% this year and 0.1% next, with high inventory giving buyers more options. The Okanagan Valley, with its appeal for lifestyle buyers, may see steadier demand but benefits from national trends reducing competition.

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Effects on Mortgages and Economy

Mortgage professionals face a mixed landscape. First-time buyers gain from softer demand, but investors see reduced rental yields. The Bank of Canada notes low population growth and a weak labor market as risks to spending, following last quarter's economic contraction.

Unemployment may peak at 7.1% in late 2025 before easing. New immigration targets, due November 1, will focus on skilled workers for housing and infrastructure.

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What This Means for Real Estate Decisions

These shifts could stabilize prices and improve access in areas like the Okanagan. Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty provides data-driven advice for buyers and sellers navigating this environment. Contact us to discuss how these trends affect your plans.