Homeownership is still the most reliable path to building wealth in Canada. That's not opinion. That's what the data shows.

A new report examining Canada's major residential markets found that the strongest markets saw price increases ranging from 377% to 460% between 1994 and 2024. Halifax Regional Municipality led with a 460% increase, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 5.91%. The Greater Toronto Area posted a 436.2% gain with a CAGR of 5.76%. Saskatoon achieved growth of approximately 377% with a CAGR of 5.35%.

"The findings confirm that homeownership continues to be the greatest driver of wealth, especially at the middle-class level," says Don Kottick, president of the real estate firm that conducted the study. "Each generation of Canadian homeowners, from Baby Boomers to Gen Z, has faced its challenges and obstacles. Today's trade barriers, high interest rates and stringent lending policies may be overwhelming, but this too shall pass."

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The Numbers Tell a Clear Story

Triple-digit gains over 30 years aren't a fluke. They're the result of structural factors that have been building for decades.

Canada reached 40 million people in June 2023, and that population growth has been sustained. But housing supply hasn't kept pace. A Scotiabank Global Economic Housing Note from May 2021 found that Canada has the lowest number of housing units per 1,000 residents of any G7 country.

The G7 average is 471 housing units per 1,000 residents. Canada sits at 424. That gap represents about 1.8 million missing homes. To put that in perspective, Canada has averaged 188,000 home completions over the past decade. Even at that pace, it would take nearly 10 years just to close the gap with current demand, let alone catch up to the G7 average.

That supply shortage is the foundation for everything else. When demand consistently outpaces supply, prices rise. And they've been rising for 30 years.

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Halifax Led the Pack

Halifax's 460% increase over 30 years represents a CAGR of 5.91%. Between 2014 and 2024, values climbed close to 110%, representing an impressive CAGR of 7.69%.

Halifax still ranks among the most affordable markets in the country, but affordability is relative. Inventory levels remain traditionally low, with about 1,200 homes currently listed for sale. The obstacles to homeownership remain price, transfer taxes, and interest rates.

Homeownership rates in the Halifax CMA peaked at 64% in 2006 but dropped to 58.6% in 2021, one of the lowest rates in the country. Younger buyers are feeling the squeeze as wage growth continues to lag price appreciation.

But here's the thing. Even with affordability challenges, Halifax homeowners who bought in 1994 saw their property values increase by 460%. That's wealth creation that's hard to replicate through any other middle-class investment vehicle.

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The GTA Wasn't Far Behind

The Greater Toronto Area posted a percentage increase of 436.2% with a CAGR of 5.76%. Population in the Toronto CMA topped 7.1 million in 2024, up almost 70% from the 4.226 million reported in 1994. Between 2022 and 2024, the CMA welcomed more than 500,000 new residents.

But housing didn't keep pace. The Scotiabank report noted that the number of housing units per 1,000 Canadians has been falling since 2016 due to sharp population growth. An extra 100,000 dwellings would have been required just to keep the ratio of housing units to population stable since 2016, and that would still leave Canada well below the G7 average.

The income gap in the GTA is stark. While home prices jumped more than 436%, household incomes climbed roughly 34.6% over the same period, rising from $97,300 in 1994 to $131,000 in 2023. That disparity presents challenges for younger buyers and signals potential friction in future price momentum.

But for those who already own, that price appreciation represents significant wealth accumulation. A home purchased for $250,000 in 1994 would be worth roughly $1.34 million today based on the GTA's 436.2% appreciation.

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Vancouver Stayed Expensive

Greater Vancouver remains the country's most expensive housing market, a title it's held since at least 1994. With the average home price hovering near $1.3 million in 2024, values have climbed more than 325% since 1994, representing an annual compounded growth rate of 4.95%.

Much of the growth occurred between 2004 and 2014, when prices rose by almost 8% annually. More recent pressures, including the pandemic, rapid interest rate hikes, the Foreign Buyer Ban, BC's Short-Term Rental Accommodations Act, and uncertainty tied to U.S. tariffs, have challenged affordability further.

From a historical perspective, today's interest rates are lower than the 30-year average, but the steep escalation in housing values has made ownership significantly harder to achieve. Even so, some seasoned buyers are taking advantage of reduced spreads to move up into larger homes or different neighborhoods, prompting an upswing in move-up activity.

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Not All Markets Performed Equally

Outcomes varied dramatically between metropolitan areas. Halifax's rapid appreciation contrasts sharply with more modest gains of about 124% in Winnipeg, highlighting the need for regional diversification rather than treating Canadian housing as a single, homogeneous asset class.

Calgary and Edmonton showed strong performance driven by immigration and in-migration. Population in Calgary and Edmonton increased by almost 121% and just under 87% respectively over the 30-year period. The Alberta is Calling ad campaign, launched by the government in 2022, offered financial incentives for eligible skilled trade workers relocating to the province, creating a vibrant home-buying market.

Housing market conditions in Calgary have since moderated, largely due to a slowdown in out-of-province buyers, higher average prices, stagnant interest rates, and a lack of substantial government incentives for first-time homebuyers. Broader economic headwinds such as U.S. tariffs, job concerns, and overall uncertainty have contributed to the more subdued marketplace.

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Policy Shaped the Market

Over the 30-year span, government policies had both positive and negative impacts on housing markets. A Bank of Canada rate hike in 1994 stifled housing market recovery, while a relaxation in lending policies between 2006 and 2008 culminated in a record year for real estate activity in 2007.

Since then, municipal and provincial government intervention has shaped market dynamics. BC introduced the Foreign Buyer Tax in 2016, the Empty Homes Tax in 2017, and the Short-Term Rental Accommodations Act in 2023. Ontario implemented the Fair Housing Plan, including the Non-Resident Speculation Tax in 2017, Toronto's Vacant Home Tax in 2023, and the Toronto Municipal Non-Resident Speculation Tax effective in 2025.

These policies aimed to cool overheated markets and improve affordability. Whether they succeeded is debatable, but they undeniably shaped supply-demand dynamics and influenced price trajectories in different regions.

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The Supply Problem Isn't Going Away

Persistent supply shortages mean markets are highly sensitive to changes in broader conditions including credit costs, permitting timelines, labor availability, and immigration settings. Without meaningful increases in construction, the imbalance could intensify, generating both upside pressure on prices and increased volatility.

The current situation reflects a chronic insufficiency of home supply that was temporarily exacerbated by pandemic-related impacts linked to record-low mortgage rates and a shift in preferences for housing by type and geography.

Construction labor shortages are affecting capacity. Permitting delays slow projects. Development charges add costs. And municipalities face political pressure from existing homeowners who resist intensification in their neighborhoods.All of these factors constrain supply. And constrained supply, combined with sustained population growth, means continued upward pressure on prices over the long term.

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What This Means for Wealth Building

The data makes it clear. Homeownership has been, and continues to be, the most reliable wealth-building tool available to middle-class Canadians.

A homeowner who purchased in Halifax in 1994 saw their property appreciate 460%. In the GTA, it was 436.2%. Even in Vancouver, where affordability has been a concern for decades, values climbed 325%.

No other widely accessible investment vehicle delivers those kinds of returns over 30 years with the same level of stability. Stocks can crash. Businesses fail. But Canadian real estate, despite periodic corrections, has trended upward consistently over multiple decades.

The gains aren't just on paper. They're real equity that homeowners can access through refinancing, leverage into larger properties, or pass down to the next generation. For many families, the equity in their home represents the bulk of their net worth.

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The Affordability Challenge Is Real

But here's the problem. While existing homeowners have benefited enormously from price appreciation, younger buyers face a much harder path to ownership.

Income growth hasn't kept pace with home price appreciation. In the GTA, incomes rose 34.6% while prices jumped 436.2%. That gap makes it harder for first-time buyers to save for a down payment, qualify for a mortgage, and afford monthly payments.

Stricter lending policies, including the mortgage stress test, add another hurdle. Higher interest rates over the past few years made borrowing more expensive. And the shortage of supply means buyers face competition, multiple offers, and pressure to pay above asking in many markets.

The result? Homeownership rates are declining among younger Canadians. The wealth-building engine that worked for previous generations is harder to access for Gen Z and younger Millennials.

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Why the Next 30 Years Won't Look the Same

The structural factors that drove 30 years of appreciation, population growth and supply constraints, are still in place. That suggests continued upward pressure on prices over the long term.

But the next 30 years won't be a straight line. Interest rate volatility, economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and policy interventions will all create periods of slower growth or even declines.

Markets are also highly sensitive to changes in immigration policy. If immigration levels drop significantly, demand softens. If construction ramps up meaningfully, supply constraints ease. Both would put downward pressure on prices.

Regional variation will continue. Markets that attract strong in-migration, like Alberta, may outperform. Markets with severe affordability challenges, like Vancouver and Toronto, may see slower growth as buyers look elsewhere.

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How Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty Can Help

At Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty, we understand that homeownership is about more than just having a place to live. It's about building long-term wealth, creating stability for your family, and participating in one of the most reliable wealth-building vehicles available to middle-class Canadians.

Whether you're a first-time buyer trying to navigate today's challenging market, a homeowner looking to leverage your equity into a larger property, or an investor seeking opportunities in growing markets, we provide the expertise and guidance you need to make informed decisions.

The data shows that homeownership has been the greatest driver of wealth over the past 30 years. But accessing that opportunity requires the right strategy, market knowledge, and professional support.

Contact Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty today to discuss your real estate goals and how we can help you build wealth through homeownership, even in today's complex market environment.

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The Bottom Line

Canadian home values rose between 377% and 460% in the strongest markets over the past 30 years. That's not speculation. That's documented appreciation that created real wealth for millions of Canadian homeowners.

The challenges are real. Affordability is strained. Younger buyers face obstacles previous generations didn't. But the fundamental drivers of long-term price appreciation, population growth and supply constraints, remain in place.

Homeownership continues to be the greatest driver of wealth at the middle-class level. Getting into the market is harder today than it was 30 years ago, but the long-term benefits remain substantial. For those who can access homeownership, the data suggests it's still the smartest wealth-building move you can make.